# Use: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/xls/sold_cust.xls Look at the monthly data on the A????1

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Use:

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/xls/sold_cust.xls

Look at the monthly data on the A????1 1 answer below » Use:

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/xls/sold_cust.xls Look at the monthly data on the A????1Reg

SoldA????1 tab. Only keep the dates beginning in

January 2008, so delete the earlier observations. Keep only the US

data, both the seasonally unadjusted monthly (column B) and the

seasonally adjusted annual (column G). Make a new column of

seasonally adjusted monthly by dividing the annual data by 12. Make

a column called A????1tA????1 similar to the bookA????1s column 4 on page 263 (t

will go from 1 to 87 in our data); make a t 2 column too

(since, if you look at the data, you can see sales View complete question » Use:

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/xls/sold_cust.xls Look at the monthly data on the A????1Reg

SoldA????1 tab. Only keep the dates beginning in

January 2008, so delete the earlier observations. Keep only the US

data, both the seasonally unadjusted monthly (column B) and the

seasonally adjusted annual (column G). Make a new column of

seasonally adjusted monthly by dividing the annual data by 12. Make

a column called A????1tA????1 similar to the bookA????1s column 4 on page 263 (t

will go from 1 to 87 in our data); make a t 2 column too

(since, if you look at the data, you can see sales dropping until

about mid-2011 then rising again; hence the quadratic). Also make a

column A????1DA????1 that is a dummy variable equal to one during the spring

and summer months, similar to the bookA????1s column 5. Determine the correlation between the

unadjusted and the adjusted monthly data (=CORREL(unadjust.,

adjust.) in Excel), and produce scatterplots (with connectors) of

both. Do you think making a seasonal adjustment will be useful,

given what you observe at this point? Run four regressions: 1) seasonally un adjusted monthly as the dependent, and

t and t 2 as the independents, 2) seasonally un adjusted monthly as the dependent, and

t, t 2 , and D as the independents, 3) seasonally adjusted

monthly as the dependent, and t and t 2 as the

independents, and 4) seasonally adjusted monthly as the dependent,

and t, t 2 , and D as the independents. Discuss your

findings, and determine which of the four models is the best for

forecasting new home sales. State the equation that would be used

to forecast sales. View less » Jul 30 2015 06:51 AM